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No matter what you do to correct your own understanding of how Facebook works, and implement a more effective strategy, you WILL have to deal with the fact that Facebook uses an algorithm that works in the favor of advertisers.
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The problems with the mathematical models started when banks started offering mortgages without knowing a borrower’s assets or income. (These were called “NINjA” loans, as in “No Income? No Assets?
Here is a loan anyway.”) Models don’t generally run very well unless you have good data to plug into the model; therefore, analysts were forced to make what amounted to an educated guess as to the
chance that a NINjA loan would end in default. …